{"id":678,"date":"2019-11-16T12:37:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-16T11:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/?p=678"},"modified":"2024-03-29T14:48:01","modified_gmt":"2024-03-29T13:48:01","slug":"de-leffet-lindy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/16\/de-leffet-lindy\/","title":{"rendered":"De l’effet Lindy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019effet Lindy<\/a> est une th\u00e9orie selon laquelle l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie future d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments non-p\u00e9rissables tels qu\u2019une technologie, une id\u00e9e ou une \u0153uvre est proportionnelle \u00e0 leur \u00e2ge actuel ou, pour dire les choses plus simplement : si quelque chose a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 survivre pendant de nombreuses ann\u00e9es, vous pouvez vous attendre \u00e0 ce que cette m\u00eame chose parvienne encore \u00e0 survivre pendant une dur\u00e9e encore plus importante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La premi\u00e8re mention de l\u2019effet Lindy  se trouve dans un article que Robert Goldman r\u00e9digea en 1964 pour le journal The New Republic<\/em>. Dans ce dernier, intitul\u00e9 \u00ab la loi du Lindy \u00bb, Goldman racontait comment les humoristes de New-York se retrouvaient au restaurant “Le Lindy” o\u00f9 ils se livraient \u00e0 des analyses leur permettant de pr\u00e9voir leurs chances de se maintenir \u00e0 l\u2019antenne ou \u00e0 l\u2019affiche.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En 1982, le math\u00e9maticien Benoit Mandelbrot affina le concept en montrant que, math\u00e9matiquement, plus un humoriste apparaissait \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9cran, plus il augmentait ses chances d\u2019y appara\u00eetre \u00e0 nouveau \u00e0 l\u2019avenir ou, pour dire les choses autrement, comment l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie future de certaines choses est proportionnelle \u00e0 leur pass\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au cours des ann\u00e9es 2000, le philosophe et math\u00e9maticien Nassim Nicholas Taleb d\u00e9veloppa encore davantage cette id\u00e9e dans deux livres : \u00ab Le Cygne Noir<\/em> \u00bb et \u00ab Antifragile <\/em>\u00bb. L\u2019apport de Taleb fut, entre autre, de montrer que l\u2019effet Lindy fonctionne \u00e0 la fois comme un processus de vieillissement invers\u00e9, chaque ann\u00e9e qui passe sans qu\u2019il y ait extinction du ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne double son esp\u00e9rance de vie additionnelle, mais aussi d\u2019expliquer que l\u2019effet Lindy permet de mesurer la robustesse d\u2019un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne voire son antifragilit\u00e9<\/strong> (les chocs et les crises le renforcent).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme l\u2019explique Taleb : \u00ab Si un livre continue d\u2019\u00eatre\nimprim\u00e9 quarante ans apr\u00e8s sa sortie, on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il soit encore\nimprim\u00e9 quarante ans plus tard. Mais s\u2019il est encore imprim\u00e9 dix ans apr\u00e8s\ncela, on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il soit encore imprim\u00e9 dans cinquante ans.\nCette simple r\u00e8gle vous permet de comprendre pourquoi les choses qui existent\ndepuis longtemps ne vieillissent pas comme des personnes mais qu\u2019elles\nb\u00e9n\u00e9ficient au contraire du passage du temps. \u00bb <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sur les plans philosophiques et politiques, l\u2019effet Lindy nous invite donc \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer tout ce qui se pr\u00e9sente comme un progr\u00e8s ou une nouveaut\u00e9 avec scepticisme<\/strong>, non pas par pure hostilit\u00e9 mais tout simplement parce que ce qui a surv\u00e9cu au passage du temps et b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 de l\u2019effet Lindy est par essence plus robuste, voire antifragile<\/a>, que tout ce qui est nouveau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, l\u2019un des probl\u00e8mes majeurs de nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s est que celles-ci m\u00e9connaissent et rejettent l\u2019effet Lindy pour embrasser avec ferveur un grand nombre d\u2019id\u00e9es ou de comportements qui n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 test\u00e9es par le temps et dont les externalit\u00e9s, les effets secondaires, ne sont pas connues. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour certains ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes de fond, la pr\u00e9sence ou non de l\u2019effet Lindy doit se compter non pas en ann\u00e9es mais en si\u00e8cles. Par exemple, une religion comme le christianisme ou un syst\u00e8me politique comme la monarchie existent depuis plus de 2000 ans, ils peuvent donc \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme Lindy et il existe donc une tr\u00e8s forte probabilit\u00e9 que ces derniers existent encore d\u2019ici 2000 ans. A l\u2019inverse, il est encore trop t\u00f4t pour se prononcer sur la viabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme de la R\u00e9publique Fran\u00e7aise<\/a>, vieille de seulement  250 ans et \u00e0 plus forte raison encore de l\u2019ath\u00e9isme<\/a> dont la g\u00e9n\u00e9ralisation date d\u2019il y a \u00e0 peine 50 ans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans un monde de \u00ab progr\u00e8s \u00bb, il  est donc tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressant d\u2019appliquer la\ngrille de l\u2019effet Lindy aux id\u00e9es, aux technologies et aux syst\u00e8mes qui nous\nentourent <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce qui est Lindy<\/strong> : la sagesse classique  (sto\u00efcisme, Hom\u00e8re, Montaigne), la religion (monoth\u00e9iste\/polyth\u00e9iste), la monarchie, les syst\u00e8mes familiaux traditionnels, les petites villes et villages, tout ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 construit avant 1945, l\u2019agriculture et l\u2019artisanat, les identit\u00e9s r\u00e9gionales, les livres, l\u2019or.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce qui n\u2019est pas Lindy <\/strong>: le relativisme, l\u2019ath\u00e9isme, l\u2019individualisme,  la d\u00e9mocratie parlementaire, les grandes m\u00e9tropoles, tout ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 construit apr\u00e8s 1945, l\u2019\u00e9conomie num\u00e9rique, l\u2019universalisme, l\u2019Union Europ\u00e9enne, les smartphones, la monnaie fiduciaire. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

En r\u00e8gle g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, pour construire et pr\u00e9parer l\u2019avenir, mieux vaut\ns\u2019appuyer sur ce qui est Lindy que sur ce qui ne l\u2019est pas.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u2019effet Lindy est une th\u00e9orie selon laquelle l\u2019esp\u00e9rance de vie future d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments non-p\u00e9rissables tels qu\u2019une technologie, une id\u00e9e ou une \u0153uvre est proportionnelle \u00e0 leur \u00e2ge actuel ou, pour dire les choses plus simplement : si quelque chose a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 survivre pendant de nombreuses ann\u00e9es, vous pouvez vous attendre \u00e0 ce que cette m\u00eame […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[79,78,80],"class_list":["post-678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politique","tag-effet-lindy","tag-lindy","tag-nassim-nicholas-taleb"],"yoast_head":"\nDe l'effet Lindy - Stanislas BERTON<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/16\/de-leffet-lindy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"De l'effet Lindy - 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