{"id":500,"date":"2019-11-06T16:38:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-06T15:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/?p=500"},"modified":"2024-03-29T14:53:07","modified_gmt":"2024-03-29T13:53:07","slug":"du-black-swan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/06\/du-black-swan\/","title":{"rendered":"Du Black Swan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab\u00a0Il est difficile de faire des pr\u00e9dictions surtout en ce qui concerne l\u2019avenir<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb Yogi Berra<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans son livre, le \u00ab\u00a0Cygne Noir\u00a0\u00bb (Black Swan), le statisticien Nassim Nicholas Taleb a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 la th\u00e9orie <\/a>du m\u00eame nom. Celle-ci d\u00e9signe un \u00e9v\u00e9nement impr\u00e9visible poss\u00e9dant une faible probabilit\u00e9 de survenir mais qui, au cas o\u00f9 il arriverait, aurait des cons\u00e9quences d\u2019une port\u00e9e consid\u00e9rable et exceptionnelle. Cette th\u00e9orie est utilis\u00e9e pour expliquer l\u2019impact disproportionn\u00e9 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements difficiles \u00e0 pr\u00e9dire, l\u2019impossibilit\u00e9 de calculer de tels \u00e9l\u00e9ments en utilisant les m\u00e9thodes statistiques classiques et enfin les biais cognitifs qui emp\u00eachent les individus, personnellement et collectivement, de comprendre et percevoir de tels \u00e9v\u00e9nements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le terme \u00ab cygne noir \u00bb provient de l’anecdote suivante: jusqu’\u00e0 la d\u00e9couverte du Nouveau-Monde, les europ\u00e9ens pensaient que tous les cygnes \u00e9taient blancs. Or, la d\u00e9couverte d\u2019un seul cygne noir fut suffisante pour remettre totalement en cause cette conception. Cet exemple offre une illustration du principe logique suivant : \u00ab l\u2019absence de preuve n\u2019est pas la preuve d\u2019absence \u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En cette p\u00e9riode de f\u00eates de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e, l\u2019histoire de la Dinde de No\u00ebl offre un bel exemple des dangers d’une pens\u00e9e incapable d\u2019int\u00e9grer la notion de \u00ab cygne noir \u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Durant toute\nl\u2019ann\u00e9e, mois apr\u00e8s mois, la dinde de No\u00ebl est nourrie par son \u00e9leveur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans l\u2019esprit\nde la dinde commence \u00e0 se dessiner une tendance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A l\u2019approche\nde No\u00ebl, son gavage s\u2019intensifie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Dinde en\nconclut que la tendance est confirm\u00e9e et que les choses vont de mieux en mieux pour\nelle. Si la veille de No\u00ebl, un sondeur demandait \u00e0 la dinde sa pr\u00e9diction pour\nl\u2019ann\u00e9e suivante, elle  anticiperait\ncertainement la poursuite du gavage en s\u2019appuyant sur les donn\u00e9es des mois\npr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais le jour de No\u00ebl, la s\u00e9rie s\u2019arr\u00eate brutalement : la Dinde est mise \u00e0 mort pour \u00eatre mang\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le graphique ci-dessous illustre parfaitement le choc caus\u00e9 par l\u2019irruption soudaine d\u2019un \u00ab cygne noir \u00bb dans une s\u00e9rie consid\u00e9r\u00e9e \u00e0 tort comme lin\u00e9aire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Aujourd\u2019hui, comme la dinde de No\u00ebl,  nos soci\u00e9t\u00e9s refusent  d\u2019envisager qu\u2019un grand nombre de \u00ab Black Swans \u00bb peuvent frapper les domaines suivants : <\/p>\n\n\n\n

-l<\/a>\u2019Union Europ\u00e9enne <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-la croissance \u00e9conomique <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-le syst\u00e8me bancaire et financier international <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-la d\u00e9mographie <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-la paix<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-le \u00ab progr\u00e8s \u00bb <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“l’\u00e9lite”<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

–<\/a>la R\u00e9publique et les Droits de l\u2019Homme <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour accepter la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 des \u00ab Cygnes Noirs \u00bb, encore faut-il admettre que ces derniers existent mais aussi \u00eatre pr\u00eats mentalement \u00e0 changer radicalement de paradigme.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour aller plus loin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mini-conf\u00e9rences de Taleb sur les probabilit\u00e9s <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00ab\u00a0Il est difficile de faire des pr\u00e9dictions surtout en ce qui concerne l\u2019avenir\u00a0\u00bb Yogi Berra Dans son livre, le \u00ab\u00a0Cygne Noir\u00a0\u00bb (Black Swan), le statisticien Nassim Nicholas Taleb a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 la th\u00e9orie du m\u00eame nom. Celle-ci d\u00e9signe un \u00e9v\u00e9nement impr\u00e9visible poss\u00e9dant une faible probabilit\u00e9 de survenir mais qui, au cas o\u00f9 il arriverait, aurait des […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[98,113,15],"class_list":["post-500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-psychologie","tag-black-swan","tag-prevision","tag-taleb"],"yoast_head":"\nDu Black Swan - Stanislas BERTON<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/06\/du-black-swan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Du Black Swan - Stanislas BERTON\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00ab\u00a0Il est difficile de faire des pr\u00e9dictions surtout en ce qui concerne l\u2019avenir\u00a0\u00bb Yogi Berra Dans son livre, le \u00ab\u00a0Cygne Noir\u00a0\u00bb (Black Swan), le statisticien Nassim Nicholas Taleb a d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 la th\u00e9orie du m\u00eame nom. Celle-ci d\u00e9signe un \u00e9v\u00e9nement impr\u00e9visible poss\u00e9dant une faible probabilit\u00e9 de survenir mais qui, au cas o\u00f9 il arriverait, aurait des […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/06\/du-black-swan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Stanislas BERTON\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-06T15:38:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-03-29T13:53:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/cygne.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"sberton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"sberton\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/06\\\/du-black-swan\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/06\\\/du-black-swan\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"sberton\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/35b8ff927e855a1e6c5cc1921d61e08c\"},\"headline\":\"Du Black Swan\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-06T15:38:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-03-29T13:53:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/06\\\/du-black-swan\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":498,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/35b8ff927e855a1e6c5cc1921d61e08c\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/06\\\/du-black-swan\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/cygne.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Black Swan\",\"pr\u00e9vision\",\"Taleb\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Psychologie\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/06\\\/du-black-swan\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/06\\\/du-black-swan\\\/\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/stanislasberton.com\\\/index.php\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/06\\\/du-black-swan\\\/\",\"name\":\"Du Black Swan - 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