{"id":21,"date":"2019-10-14T15:38:22","date_gmt":"2019-10-14T13:38:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/?p=21"},"modified":"2024-03-29T15:30:34","modified_gmt":"2024-03-29T14:30:34","slug":"antifragilite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/14\/antifragilite\/","title":{"rendered":"De l&#8217;Antifragilit\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/antifragile.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1602\" width=\"291\" height=\"449\" srcset=\"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/antifragile.jpg 408w, http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/antifragile-194x300.jpg 194w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 291px) 100vw, 291px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Nassim Nicolas Taleb, auteur du \u00ab\u00a0Cygne Noir\u00a0\u00bb, d\u2019\u00a0\u00bbAntifragile\u00a0\u00bb et de \u00ab\u00a0Jouer sa peau\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0d\u00e9veloppait r\u00e9cemment sur <a href=\"\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1181547847029800962\">Twitter<\/a> son concept d\u2019\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/14\/antifragilite\/\">effet Lindy<\/a>\u00a0\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Traduit de l&#8217;anglais par Stanislas Berton <\/em><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00ab&nbsp;Vous\nvoulez \u00e9crire un livre capable de survivre deux ou trois d\u00e9cennies&nbsp;? Le premier\nr\u00e9flexe est d\u2019\u00e9crire quelque chose tourn\u00e9 vers le futur.&nbsp;Non. Assurez-vous\nque le contenu du livre est pertinent \u00e0 la fois aujourd\u2019hui mais aussi \u00e0 un\nmoment d\u00e9termin\u00e9 du pass\u00e9, par exemple il y a 30 ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inversement,\nsi vous voulez qu\u2019un livre meure, assurez-vous qu\u2019il n\u2019ait aucun int\u00e9r\u00eat pour\nun homme du pass\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette astuce\ns\u2019applique aux institutions, aux id\u00e9es, aux th\u00e9ories, aux technologies, et\ntoutes ces autres choses non-p\u00e9rissables&nbsp;: la vieille technologie survit\nen grande partie parce qui est nouveau se trouve remplac\u00e9 par ce qui est encore\nplus nouveau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le temps est\n\u00e0 la fois un d\u00e9tecteur et une cause de fragilit\u00e9&nbsp;: ce qui a surv\u00e9cu\nposs\u00e8de une r\u00e9sistance aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements al\u00e9atoires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette petite\nastuce nous permet de nous livrer \u00e0 de la <em>pr\u00e9diction\nn\u00e9gative<\/em>. L\u2019Histoire n\u2019a pas de sens ou plut\u00f4t, elle a un sens qui ne nous\nest pas accessible. En revanche, tout ce qui est fragile finira par rompre sous\nle poids du temps. Par cons\u00e9quent l\u2019effondrement est plus facile \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir que\nl\u2019\u00e9mergence&nbsp;: l\u2019innovation est plus susceptible d\u2019attaquer ce qui est\nnouveau et d\u2019\u00e9pargner ce qui est ancien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En\ncons\u00e9quence, certains \u00e9l\u00e9ments modernes seront remplac\u00e9s- on ne sait pas encore\npar quoi, tout ce que l\u2019on peut savoir est que ce qui est fragile s\u2019effondrera &nbsp;et que ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9prouv\u00e9 par le passage du\ntemps sera \u00e9pargn\u00e9. Voici donc une liste de choses nouvelles et fragiles qui\nsont susceptibles de dispara\u00eetre au cours des dix prochaines ann\u00e9es. Elles sont\ntr\u00e8s modernes, hautement fragiles et soumises \u00e0 des pressions donc\nattendez-vous qu\u2019au moins quatre sur huit disparaissent&nbsp;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les huiles v\u00e9g\u00e9tales (soja, ma\u00efs, palme), les statines et les m\u00e9dicaments psychotropes, la monnaie fiduciaire, le r\u00e9gime d\u2019Arabie Saoudite, l\u2019ordinateur de bureau, les compagnies a\u00e9riennes nationales, le mouvement n\u00e9o-ath\u00e9iste, l\u2019\u00e9conomie comportementale et le nudge, CNN, l\u2019architecture non-fractale, les organisations centralis\u00e9es et kafka\u00efennes comme Bruxelles ou Whitehall (UK), l\u2019\u00e9ducation d\u2019&nbsp;\u00ab&nbsp;\u00e9lite&nbsp;\u00bb&nbsp; au niveau licence, et pour terminer,&nbsp; les organismes g\u00e9n\u00e9tiquement modifi\u00e9s\u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A la liste de Taleb, j\u2019ajouterai \u00e0 titre personnel&nbsp;: l\u2019id\u00e9ologie \u00e9galitaire universaliste et la R\u00e9publique Fran\u00e7aise, en tant que r\u00e9gime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>NB : Cet article ne fait pas partie du recueil l&#8217;Homme et la Cit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nassim Nicolas Taleb, auteur du \u00ab\u00a0Cygne Noir\u00a0\u00bb, d\u2019\u00a0\u00bbAntifragile\u00a0\u00bb et de \u00ab\u00a0Jouer sa peau\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0d\u00e9veloppait r\u00e9cemment sur Twitter son concept d\u2019\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0effet Lindy\u00a0\u00bb. Traduit de l&#8217;anglais par Stanislas Berton \u00ab&nbsp;Vous voulez \u00e9crire un livre capable de survivre deux ou trois d\u00e9cennies&nbsp;? Le premier r\u00e9flexe est d\u2019\u00e9crire quelque chose tourn\u00e9 vers le futur.&nbsp;Non. Assurez-vous que le contenu du livre [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[200,15],"class_list":["post-21","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ethologie","tag-antifragile","tag-taleb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>De l&#039;Antifragilit\u00e9 - Stanislas BERTON<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/stanislasberton.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/14\/antifragilite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"De l&#039;Antifragilit\u00e9 - Stanislas BERTON\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nassim Nicolas Taleb, auteur du \u00ab\u00a0Cygne Noir\u00a0\u00bb, d\u2019\u00a0\u00bbAntifragile\u00a0\u00bb et de \u00ab\u00a0Jouer sa peau\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0d\u00e9veloppait r\u00e9cemment sur Twitter son concept d\u2019\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0effet Lindy\u00a0\u00bb. Traduit de l&#8217;anglais par Stanislas Berton \u00ab&nbsp;Vous voulez \u00e9crire un livre capable de survivre deux ou trois d\u00e9cennies&nbsp;? Le premier r\u00e9flexe est d\u2019\u00e9crire quelque chose tourn\u00e9 vers le futur.&nbsp;Non. 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